MGIMarket General Intelligence

MGI Pulse 0.6.19 / UK public beta

The financial world forgets quickly. MGI keeps the record.

MGI connects what was known, what people expected, what happened and what changed later. The public beta starts with four official UK indicators, a published forecast, a resolved event and a partial Bank of England policy model.

See the UK indicators View published forecasts
04
official UK indicators
01
published forecast on record
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UK / MGINOWlatest figures

RATE · Bank Rate

3.75%Restrictive policy rate · live source

CPIH · Annual inflation

2.80%Moderate CPIH inflation · live source

LAB · Unemployment

4.90%Unemployment broadly stable · saved source copy

GDP · Quarterly growth

0.6%Real GDP expanding · live source

These sources are checked when MGI is published. If one source fails, the other indicators remain available.

Official sources

Dates shown

Forecasts preserved

Corrections published

01 / UK INDICATORS

Different measures, different periods

Four figures. Four different clocks.

Bank Rate can change on a single day. Inflation refers to a month. Unemployment covers three months. GDP covers a quarter. MGI keeps those periods separate, so the latest number does not lose its meaning.

01RATEBank RateRestrictive policy rate3.75%live source02CPIHAnnual inflationModerate CPIH inflation2.80%live source03LABUnemploymentUnemployment broadly stable4.90%saved source copy04GDPQuarterly growthReal GDP expanding0.6%live source
02 / RESEARCH RECORDS

What was expected. What happened next.

A forecast becomes more useful when the result stays beside it.

MGI keeps forecasts, event records, briefs and model limits available after publication. Later evidence adds to the record instead of replacing it.

Published forecast30 July 2026 Bank Rate forecast

See the probabilities recorded before the decision and the scoring rule that cannot be changed afterwards.

What the model coversBank of England policy model

Six of seven defined areas are connected. Policy transmission is not yet represented.

Resolved event18 December 2025 rate decision

Compare the survey expectation with the official decision, vote and source documents.

Published briefDaily Brief

Read the original brief with its sources, limitations and correction status.

03 / HOW THE RECORD WORKS

Evidence, expectation, outcome

Each update keeps its place in time.

  1. 01
    What was known

    MGI records the source, figure, period and information available at publication.

  2. 02
    What was expected

    Published forecasts keep their original probabilities and scoring rules.

  3. 03
    What happened

    Official outcomes are added from named sources. Earlier claims remain visible.

  4. 04
    What changed later

    Revisions and corrections create a new record without silently rewriting the old one.

Read the methodologyView the release record

Scope

Research and education only

MGI provides general financial and economic information. It does not provide personal recommendations or tell people what to trade.

Read the research disclaimerReport a correction